Spot markets, derivatives and ETF: accumulate alert signals

Extensive on -site withdrawal, derivatives and bitcoin markets ETF

The Bitcoin market is currently undergoing an unstable period with massive sale and discrete purchases. In his latest report Glassnode records a clear inflexion of bitcoin bull dynamics, indicating that this suggests “Momentum is scattered on spot markets in the long run of options and ETF”.

At the market site, indicators show a rapid deterioration of the technical structure. RSI (relative force index) dropped from 47.4 to 35.8, crossed the lower threshold and entered the zone of occurrence.

This correction is accompanied by significant strengthening of sales pressure. The CVD consumption (cumulative Delta volume), the key indicator of imbalances between purchasing and sales orders, collapses from 107.1 million to $ 220 million, while weakening the liquidity, as evidenced by a daily volume reduction of 8.4 to 7.5 billion. This three indicators indicate the loss of the mobility of the buyer and a more active distribution phase.

This phenomenon expands to derivative and ETF markets, which strengthens the idea of a decrease in taste to a risk scale. The numbers published by Glassnode reveal cautious dynamics:

• The open interest on future contracts dropped slightly from 45.6 to 44.9 billion, which betrayed partial release from open positions;

• Funding of long positions will drop by 33 %, which costs $ 3.1 million, indicating reflux up the demand for lever effect;

• CVD of permanent contracts slips from –1.2 to $ 1.8 billion, which signals the persistent sales pressure;

• Open interest on possibilities will drop by 8.4 % or $ 39.8 billion, indicating progressive lack of interest in speculative betting;

• The implicit volatility (volatility spread) closes sharply, from 23.84 % to 16.26 %, reflecting the re -evaluation of the risk of investors;

• 25 Delta chamfers climbed to 5.51 and exceeded its high belt, showing increased interest in lower protection;

• Pure tide to ETF drops from 24.9 % to $ 269.4 million, which is significantly below recent average levels;

• The volume of ETF transactions increased slightly by 9.9 % or $ 19.8 billion, which is a sign of reactive market, but defensive;

• The MVRV ETF ratio fell from 2.4 to 2.3, indicating a slight withdrawal of the average profitability of positions.

This decline coordinated in several market segments illustrates the transition to caution. If no brutal collapse is observed at this stage, synchronization of negative signals confirms the release phase.

More measured activity on the chain and signs of dealers’ exhaustion

In addition to traditional financial markets, the activity of the on-line is a contrasting reading of the situation. If the environment is generally less active, some metrics reveal a certain balance in the market structure.

The number of active addresses increased by 3.6 % to 729 000, while the CAP metric changes remains high to 6.3 %, indicating that capital flows still flock to the net, albeit at a milder speed.

On the other hand, the transferred volume dropped by 13.9 %to $ 9.4 billion and transaction costs decreased by 14.4 %, ie $ 483,200, which is a sign of more discreet economic activities in the chain.

In terms of liquidity and capital distribution, indicators remain stable. The ratio of short -term holders / long -term holders has not changed to 17.3 %and the speculative capital share (proportion of hot capital) remains 36 %, which converts a relative balance between short and long -term investors.

On the other hand, the profitability data reflects increasing caution. The percentage of profit offer dropped to 93.6 %, NUPL drops to 8.6 %and the ratio caused the loss/profits to drop to 1.9. These elements show that despite the worldwide profit market, earnings are more reserved.

According to Glassnode, the market seems to slip from the phase of euphoria to the Revaluation phase, with the conditions of the occurrence and the symptoms of an exception selling exception that could indicate short -term technical discourages. However, the overall market structure remains fragile, making any restoration scenario depending on the external catalyst or the recovery of demand, and still uncertain at this stage. If a recovery is possible, it is based on poorly solid foundations that cause caution in projections. From this point of view, bitcoin can still focus on $ 148,000 by the end of the year?

Renunciation

The words and opinions expressed in this article are involved only by their author and should not be considered investment counseling. Do your own research before any investment decision.