Collapse or reflection: The decisive moment of bitcoins is coming faster than expected
The Bitcoin Market (BTC) intersects the turbulence area, marked with a fall below the symbolic threshold of $ 113,000 and an unprecedented pull of pessimism between private investors. The feeling indicator reaches historically low levels, while comparison with previous market cycles multiplies. Should we see the opportunity to buy or a sustainable reverse sign? Submerged in weak signals and technical monuments that agitate the crypto community.
Diving below $ 113,000 and panic of private investors
The price of bitcoins recently slipped to $ 112,656 and reached the lowest level since August 3. This decline represents a decline of 8.5 % compared to the top of $ 124,000 observed at the beginning of the month. This exceeding the psychological threshold of $ 113,000 caused a wave of emotional reactions among retail investors.
The social feeling index by Santiment has seen its negative level from June 22, which is a period already marked with geopolitical voltage $. This brutal conversion of feeling is part of the context, where many short -term traders preferred to destroy their positions, accelerating the sales pressure.
In parallel, the fear and greed index fell to 44/100 and, according to the traditional reading grid, signaled input into the area of fear. These levels indicate extremely cautious, even terrible market perception that forces certain analysts to see a contradictory signal.
Ryan Lee, the main analyst of Bitget, confirms this increase in anxiety by emphasizing that Delta chamfering 30 days reached 12 %, which is the highest level in four months. This illustrates the high demand for lower coverage, which is a clear sign of caution among investors. It shows that this type of peak of fear is not necessarily negative: last April, a similar situation preceded by a spectacular jump in bitcoins nearly $ 30,000 per month.
The Santiment team emphasizes that such phases of panic often represent accumulation opportunities. According to them, this extreme level of reduction could prevent conversion, as observed in previous repairs $.
History “Bear Traps”: Rebound in preparation?
The hypothesis of the reflection on the body is based on several historical previous. In September 2017, Bitcoin dropped by 3.6 % in two weeks before it started to achieve a new summit. A similar scenario occurred in September 2021, with a decrease of 23 % quickly followed by $ reverse.
In these two cases, strong corrections were perceived as “bear traps” – a temporary surrender phase of the seller openly. This type of configuration is often used by so -called “diamond” investors, those who maintain their positions despite short -term volatility.
Ryan Lee, however, forces this purely technical reading and recalls that the current decline does not occur in the vacuum. Macroeconomic pressure – between American cells, increased regulatory supervision associated with a survey including Donald Trump and disappointing the results in the IA sector – weighs in all speculative markets. Despite this, the maintenance of bitcoins above $ 117,000 shows the support of institutional investors and the ETF strength.
Santiment believes that if history is repeated in 2025, bitcoins at $ 90,000 can prevent a new $. This scenario is based on technical and emotional reading of market cycles, taking into account collective psychology.
Lee concludes that if the threshold pays $ 112,000, it could not mean resetting the market, but the base of another Haussier movement. He recommends that he follow the indicators of the on-session and macroeconomic meetings such as Jackson Hole to assess whether this phase is only a moment of digestion or overture to a new impult.